1Long-term Bitcoin holders own approximately 4 million BTC purchased between $85,000 and $118,000.
2The $84,000 to $85,000 price band has repeatedly acted as resistance against upward price movement.
3U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF holders are currently near their break-even point with an average cost basis around $81,500 to $82,000.
4The Federal Reserve recently held benchmark interest rates steady at 3.75% to 4.00%.
5Analyst Tim Sun notes that high U.S. Treasury yields and lack of new buying interest constrain a sustained market recovery.
Key takeaway
Significant amounts of Bitcoin were bought at higher prices, creating potential selling pressure that could cap price recoveries until demand increases.
Short-term impact (days–weeks)
● NEUTRAL
Bitcoin could continue trading within a defined range until macro liquidity conditions shift.
Medium-term impact (1–3 months)
● NEUTRAL
The market may break out of its current range once new buying interest returns and resistance levels are cleared.
Key risks
Potential selling pressure from long-term holders aiming to break even near $85,000.
Persistently high U.S. Treasury yields increasing the opportunity cost for risk assets.
Insufficient new buying interest to support a sustained market recovery.